Fantasy Football Advisor

by @FFA_Scanlon

There was a tie.  My guess is there are a lot of people that can now relate to Donovan McNabb in a way they didn’t think they ever would.  But yes, it is possible.  It’s very unlikely, and maybe something we could expect from the St. Louis Rams, but certainly not the San Francisco Giants.  The game ended 24-24 with an overtime full of penalties and missed field goals.  For a tie game, it was actually surprisingly exciting.  Let’s take a look at some fantasy ties that affected us all in week 10.

Be Proud of Yourself

Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson tied for 18 fantasy points this week, and nobody would have blamed you for benching either of these guys.  Chris Johnson went against the fifth best fantasy defense against running backs in the Miami Dolphins, and even with his recent success, Chris “Inconsistent” Johnson could have easily put up a goose egg in this game.  Instead he lit them up for 126 yards and a touchdown, nicely rewarding the fantasy owners that trusted him this week.  After his bye week, Johnson has some favorable matchups and should continue to produce.

The more surprising performance was Steven Jackson’s 101 yards rushing and touchdown against the best run defense in the NFL in the aforementioned tie game.  The 49ers have allowed less than 10 points per game to opposing running backs, and considering Jackson has produced more than 10 points just once this season, this was certainly unexpected.  He was on my bench in two leagues, and he is now laughing at me, because I lost, and he tied.  He’ll probably suck against the Jets next week just so he can keep laughing at me…

Sorry You’re Disappointed

The Bengals were in charge of their game against the Giants from the beginning, with their secondary doing a particularly good job shutting down the Giants’ passing game.  As a Patriots fan, there are few things I enjoy more than watching Eli Manning look terrible, and on Sunday he and his number one wideout tied for two fantasy points.  Count them with me. One. Two. That’s it.  Little Manning has been awful the last three weeks, combining for 10 points in all three weeks combined, no touchdowns, and is still the inferior Manning.

Cruz is tied with Manning for the last three weeks as well, with just 10 total points.  To be fair, it would be hard for him to do well when his quarterback is playing below the Mendoza line (wait, is that right), but it is still nonetheless disappointing.  Odds are, they’ll figure it out, barely sneak into the playoffs, and beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl again.  But then again, they could not.  Let’s hope for that.

Don’t Get Too Excited

Dez Bryant tied A.J. Green for 14 fantasy points this week, showing signs of life with 87 yards on three catches and a touchdown.  Bryant, however, is nowhere close to the number one fantasy wideout, and performances even this mundane should not be expected on a week to week basis.  While Green caught his ninth touchdown, extending his streak to eight games in a row with a dance in the end zone, Bryant caught just his third.  He is getting targeted just as much as his counterpart, Miles Austin, and less than Romo’s favorite target, Jason Witten. We all know the frustration with Bryant – the potential versus the actual production – and I don’t think he’s going to give you consistent, A.J. Green-like production anytime soon.

Now You Can Get Excited

The Lions’ aerial duo came through this week in a big way, with Stafford and Megatron both putting up 24 fantasy points.  They have put together a string of performances that allows us to take a deep breathe and trust not only in these two players specifically, but the Lions’ pass game in general. Stafford has been throwing the ball really well, with great games in each of the last three weeks (one didn’t produce a great fantasy game, but it was nice to see…), and Megatron has been catching these ball, with over 330 yards in the last two weeks. They are definitely sporadic at times, but are also definitely talented, and with the Cardinals, the Colts, and the Packers twice in their future, I foresee good things.

For those making their last playoff push, good luck to you. For those of you whose towel has been thrown in for them, like myself, playing spoiler is a decent consolation prize. In either instance, best of luck to all in week 11.

by @FFA_Scanlon

In a standard scoring format, Doug Martin is now the season’s leading scorer among running backs, which is frankly the least surprising thing I’ve heard in a while considering he just scored 51 fantasy points against the Oakland Raiders.  Fifty.  One.  He ran for an absurd 251 yards and 4 touchdowns on 25 carries.  As always, there were other great performances as well as many underwhelming performances.  Let’s get into it.

Be Proud of Yourself
There was a shuffle at quarterback this week, with most of the top names giving sub par performances, and Tom Brady is the only one with a good excuse.  It’s too bad there was only one bye week QB that needed replacing, as a lot of average fantasy QB’s came up with big games this week.  Jay Cutler threw 3 touchdowns, all to Brandon Marshall, and didn’t even throw an interception!  Russel Wilson also had a nice game with 3 touchdowns of his own.  Not a lot of yardage for him, but he always gets you an extra 3-4 points on the ground, which he also did this week.

The pride ensues however for those who started Carson Palmer.  If you asked Mr. Palmer to fill in for Brady, simply spot started him because of matchup, or whatever reason you may have had, it certainly paid off.  Palmer dismantled the Aqib Talib-less Buccaneers defense to the tune of 414 yards and 4 touchdowns.  The Bucs’ secondary won a couple battles, picking him off three times.  Nonetheless, Palmer got you a nice 28 points that I’m sure helped a lot of teams onto a week 9 win.

Sorry You’re Disappointed
For each QB that over-performed, one under-performed, with three of the top five fantasy signal callers thus far landing outside the top ten.  Drew Brees was the highest scorer with 15, which isn’t terrible, but you drafted him expecting more than that.  Matty Ice had 342 yards, but never found the end zone.  He kept his kicker busy, as the Falcons had one rushing touchdown and 4 field goals, staying undefeated on the year.  Though Ryan loved the win, his fantasy owners would have appreciated a little bit more than 13 points.  Finally, Stafford, who has had a pretty disappointing year all around once again didn’t give you anything to get excited about.  11 measly points and no TDs.  Come on dude, you’re throwing to a machine.

RG III had his second bad week in a row, and it might be around that time that defenses are learning to adjust to the rookie QB.  In week 8 Pittsburgh kept him very quiet, only allowing him to throw for 172 yards, and more importantly only 8 yards on the ground.  The panthers weren’t as successful stopping his run, as he broke off for 53 yards on 11 carries, but they did keep him out of the end zone both in the air and on the ground, as he put up just 13 fantasy points.  I’m not hitting the panic button just yet, but he needs to take the bye week to figure out just how he’s going to beat some pretty good defenses in his final 7 games of the year.

Don’t Get Too Excited
As a Mikel Leshoure owner, this section may be to temper my own expectations more than anything else.  I want to believe that he’s a stud, that he’s their lead back that will continue to get their goal-line carries, and that he’ll keep being productive with what he’s given.  The one issue is that he seems to fall under the same category as LeSean McCoy – backs that should never get less than 20 touches a game, at the very least, but for whatever reason do not.  I don’t mean to group these two as much as to suggest they are on the same level talent wise, because McCoy definitely edges him out.  But the fact still remains that Stafford is throwing the ball 35-40 times every game, while Leshoure’s carries stay in the low teens.  I’m not quite sure what else he can do to get the ball more, and as long as the goal line carries don’t go back to Bell, there isn’t too much to worry about, that is as long as you’re not expecting 25 fantasy points a week from him.

Now You Can Get Excited
Well, I’m not going to tell you to get excited about Doug Martin because 1) I highly doubt you need me to, and 2) I already told you to in week 7.  I will however say, stay excited.  This is not a sell-high situation.  Start him and don’t think twice about it.

When did Andrew Luck become a fantasy starter in your league?  On draft day Luck was that upside player you definitely had to pay for if you wanted him, a popular choice for those who decided to wait on their quarterback.  And the record-setting rookie looks to be on his way to make that a really nice risk.  Luck set the rookie single game passing record this Sunday with 433 yards, adding 2 touchdowns, no turnovers, and a solid 25 fantasy points.  I’ve gone back and forth on Luck, especially as he’s been overshadowed by the guy picked right after him in this years draft.  But Luck, fairly quietly (well, until this week), has performed really well.  This is only his second game without a turnover, which is to be expected from a young QB, and is therefore always a wild card.  However he could really settle in and be studly for the remainder of the year.  One of my roommates was getting very excited watching Luck move the ball at will on Sunday, and I think it might be time for us all to get excited.  Unless we’re playing against him…

It’s trading season in fantasy football, especially for those of you in keeper leagues.  Remaining schedules, strength of team, risk/reward, rebuilding vs. contending – all the wonderful things us fantasy owners get to over-analyze.  Good luck in all your transaction endeavors, and may you be rewarded for your risks!

Website review for Dynasty Football Warehouse to be posted this Thursday.  Come check it out!

by @FFA_Scanlon

Week 8 was a block party, and four teams were invited – Eagles, Titans, Packers, and Dolphins.  Whether it was punts or field goals, I’ve never seen this many blocked kicks in one weekend.  Let’s take a look at a couple players from each team, as well as their D/ST.

Be Proud of Yourself
The Packers D/ST has some upside.  In real life, they are pretty awful, as they were the second worst pass defense in the NFL last year.  They’re still bad, but as they’ve shown this weekend, they have these kinds of plays in them, and their run defense is strong enough that they can be a great play when given the right matchup.  You’re looking for a run heavy team with a young and subpar quarterback – the Packers could surprise you.

We’ve all heard it said before that fantasy relevance is skill + opportunity, with opportunity playing an unfortunately large roll.  One man with recent opportunity was Mr. Randall Cobb, and if you’re one of the owners that subtracted Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson (and, JerMichael Finley, really, let’s be honest) and added Randall Cobb, be proud of yourself.  Cobb has had a nice couple weeks, with another touchdown this weekend, and Rodgers has been known to spread it around.  Cobb was on a lot of people’s pre-season sleeper list, and it seems as though he could be a big play option for the rest of the year.

Sorry You’re Disappointed
Well, this one is easy.  If you’re an Eagles fan, I’m extremely sorry.  Nnamdi Asomugha certainly wasn’t worth the money, unless they wanted the guy he was covering to catch touchdowns.  This team is a disaster, and should barely have a win.  I wouldn’t go near the Eagles defense with a ten foot pole.

As a McCoy owner, I’m really glad he can catch the ball, or else we’d be just as disappointed in him as we are the guy throwing him the ball.  Why Andy Reid won’t give his running back the ball more blows my mind, especially when the alternative is Michael Vick.  If you took the risk on Vick this season, I sure hope you adequately backed him up, because Andy Reid might be one or two more bad games away from going to his bench himself.  No Eagle is living up to their hype, with McCoy hopefully on the verge of breaking out, especially after the weak New Orleans matchup in week 9.

Don’t Get Too Excited
The Titans blocked a Pittsburgh Steelers punt on Sunday that was recovered on the 2-yard line.  Nine times out of ten, it would have been a touchdown, and would have been the difference in the game, however the Titans weren’t so lucky.  This defense follows the previous two I’ve discussed in the ‘pretty awful’ category of defenses, however they don’t have much big play potential, and give up a lot of yards and a lot of points on a weekly basis. Stay away.

The Titans miss Jake Locker.  No disrespect to Matt Hasselbeck – He’s a good veteran quarterback, but Washington had much better numbers with Locker, and he made his offensive line look a little better with his mobility.  I know I said just last week that there’s some value here, and I still think that’s true.  Unfortunately I think it’s more of boom-or-bust value rather than consistent production.  I guess when you hang out with Chris Johnson long enough it becomes contagious.

Now You Can Get Excited
The Miami Dolphins won my heart over this weekend by making Mark Sanchez look exactly like the terrible that he is.  Not only did they pick him off once and force him to fumble, they also blocked not only a punt, but a field goal attempt as well, scoring a touchdown off the blocked punt.  They were the top D/ST in week 8, with two other 14 point performances this season, and although they give up a lot of yards, they pick off a lot of passes and are another big play potential defense.

Remember when Daniel Thomas was the next big running back in Miami?  Oh, and remember when Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown were both starter worthy fantasy running backs because they had a bad passing game?  Tannehill is down, Thomas got 15 carries in week 8 with a score, and they Dolphins are playing three of the worst run defenses in the next three weeks.  Daniel Thomas could be a sneaky, very quality start in the coming weeks.  If he comes through in the next couple weeks, he could start earning split-carries in Miami and be a good FLEX or RB2 option for the rest of the season.

Another week in the books.  Only five or six regular season matchups left, depending on how you feel about week 17.  For those of you in the hunt, good luck!  It’s never too late.

by @FFA_Scanlon

Week 7 left us with a lot to think about.  I think it’s fair to say that through seven weeks we have a good idea of what teams are made of, and just like every year there are a handful of teams that have fallen in different places than we thought they would.  This week I’m going to highlight a couple teams I have found either surprising or disappointing, and what that has meant for our wonderful world of fantasy football.

Be Proud of Yourself:
The Tennessee Titans fall into a category of teams that overall are not very good, but seem to have an offense that can put things together enough to be fantasy relevant.  Following week 5, I mentioned the Dolphins being one of those teams that despite being pretty bad, has those bye-week fill-in gems due to a (semi)-productive offense (see Moore, Marlon).  Finding those guys week in and week out would be something to be proud of, however sticking with these Titan players is even more-so.

The Titans gave you every reason to bail on them.  To be fair, if you drafted Chris Johnson, your options were to stick with him or trade him for about twenty cents on the dollar.  But guys like Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, and even Jared Cook are guys that can be very productive on any given week.  It’s really too bad that Locker went down – he looked real good early.  But Hasselbeck is a veteran presence that, while he isn’t quite starter worthy, can make the guys around him starter worthy.  So if you stuck with these guys, be proud of yourself, cause I can see them continuing to produce.  Of the nine remaining games, I’ll take the over on 5.5 games of 100+ yards for CJ2K.

Sorry You’re Disappointed:
The Detroit Lions have let a lot of people down, including yours truly, and I’m not happy about it.  Coming off a season where they were one of the more dominating offensive teams, they have been sub-par to say the least through six games this season, and I can’t help but feel pessimistic about the rest of the season.

As these things usually go, it starts with the quarterback.  Stafford is talented, and has shown us what he can do.  There’s no reason to think he can’t get back there, I just don’t think it’s going to be that soon, and maybe not even this season.  He looks really out of sync.  Defenses have adjusted, thrown more zone sets against him, and I think the 4 year QB has one more adjustment period before he can get close to his 2011 numbers on a regular basis.  Until then, it’s hard for the players around him to be consistent too.  Obviously Megatron has had big weeks, and Burleson, Leshoure, even Young have had their moments.  However coming into this season this was an offense that I thought would really strive, and pay off for fantasy owners week in and week out.  It simply hasn’t been and we can only hope it turns around soon.  But this doesn’t get the “buy-low” tag from me.

Don’t Get Too Excited: 
I’m going to go out on a limb a little bit here and nominate the Houston Texans for this one.  Arian Foster and Andre Johnson are about as talented as they come, and you’re obviously starting them every week, but the Texans offense overall is being overrated.  A major reason I have them here this week is because of the way they just dismantled the Ravens defense, simply because the temptation is to be impressed.  Don’t be.  We all know what that defense has gone through injury wise, so putting up 43 points on them isn’t all that impressive, especially when two scores came from Flacco’s elite passing.

The bottom line is the Texans have played just one good defense all season.  Their passing game hasn’t been all that impressive, and I don’t trust Matt Schaub to make big plays against good defenses.  All I’m saying here is temper your expectations, especially in the passing game.  Their defense usually has them playing with a lead – Foster will get his.  But when they are in close games, like they showed against Green Bay, it can get real ugly real fast.

Now You Can Get Excited:
Remember the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers?  When Freeman’s TD/INT ratio was 25-6 instead of 16-22.  When they had a workhorse back who actually gained yards?  When Mike Williams was reliable, having just under 1,000 yards receiving and 11 touchdowns?  Dare I say, we are seeing hints of this.  This is an offense a lot of people thought would be very solid last year, and, well, they were not.  It has just been in the last two weeks that they’ve shown some life, and I’m getting excited.

I think Doug Martin is legit.  I don’t think he’s going to win the rushing title, or win your matchup for you every week.  However if he does his job, is productive enough to open up the passing game and handle a steady work load, which I think he can, this offense could really take off.  Granted, the Kansas City and New Orleans defenses aren’t all that terrifying, but the Bucs didn’t just beat them, they moved at will.  Over these last two weeks Freeman has 748 yards, 6 TDs, and 1 INT.  Vincent Jackson has 282 receiving yards and 3 TDs, Mike Williams has 149 with a TD, and Doug Martin has 161 yards and a TD.  The investment in these guys could pay off big relative to their overall value at this point in the year.

I avoided talking about the Patriots because it would have been difficult to put into words how worried I am.  Fantasy wise, however, they are still producing.  But the team everyone loves to hate sure has been underwhelming.  Here’s to the AFC east – thanks for being easy to win.  See you next week!

by @FFA_Scanlon

A lot of things happened in week 5, including another Packer loss, a couple guys with 200+ yards, and an important lesson for a rookie QB to learn.  Shanahan could have just showed RG III videos of Michael Vick’s career, but sometimes you just have to touch the hot plate.  Hey, if we’re lucky, Shanahan will panic and go back to his irrational behavior of starting a different running back every week.  Guy can dream, right?

Be Proud of Yourself:
First, just because I need to say it, if you own Arian Foster, good job.  My fellow FFAdvisor, @FFAdvisor_Matt backed Foster as the #1 RB for the season in his post, Who to Pick #1.  It seemed as though him and Rice went back and forth in most drafts, but I was one of many who had doubts about Foster – health, Tate, on a team that can throw – and had I had the #1 pick in any of my drafts, probably wouldn’t have drafted him.  But he has been an absolute stud so far with just over 4 yards per carry and averaging a TD per game.  So, just because I think he deserves to be mentioned considering how good he has been, way to go Foster owners.  Hope you’re enjoying it.

The other hot off-season topic was the emergence of tight ends.  Graham this, Gronkowski that.  While they are obviously great players, with so much hype there hardly seemed to be a way you could acquire them without overpaying.  Now the ones who should be proud of themselves are the ones who waited for Tony Gonzalez.  Week 5 was his latest reminder that he may be old, but he’s still pretty good.  Thirteen receptions for 138 yards and a TD makes him the #1 fantasy tight end, and a continuous red zone option for a really good offensive passing team.  Him and Todd Helton need to start a club.  If Kevin Garnett has one more good year, he can be in it too.  I digress…

Sorry You’re Disappointed:
Remember in week 1 when Shonn Greene got the ball 27 times, ran for 94 yards and scored a touchdown?  You must have thought, “he might actually not disappoint me this year!”  Well, I’m sorry you’re disappointed.  In the last four weeks, Greene has barely cracked half of the fantasy points he put up in week 1, with a stellar 26 yards on 9 carries in week 5.  In the Jets’ defense, it’s hard to run the ball when your quarterback is just so talented…

Chris Johnson came back to earth in week 5 and started to run terribly again.  I got a little worried last week when he up and ran for over 100 yards – something didn’t feel right there.  But he found his form again quite theatrically with a nice big goose egg.  This week I came across the team name: “Johnson’s Career Ending Contract.”  Well played.

Finally, this shout out goes out to the players who started the wrong QBs this week (myself being one of them).  Alex Smith, Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Christian Ponder, and Brandon Weeden were probably on a lot of benches, and most likely outscored the starter.  If it would have made the difference between a win and a loss, I’m sorry you’re disappointed.

Don’t Get Too Excited:
That being said, there are only two names on that list I would consider starter caliber signal callers: Andrew Luck and Christian Ponder.  Luck seems to be everything he was hyped up to be, and Ponder has actually been really impressive, especially with his legs.  But I wouldn’t get too excited about the other guys.  Alex Smith is on a team that wins mostly with it’s defense and ground game, Brandon Weeden is on a bad, bad team, and Cutler has that ‘deciphering his players from the defense’ problem.  Bye week fill-ins, sure.  But my guess is these aren’t the guys you drafted as your QB1, so don’t treat them that way.

Ahmad Bradshaw had quite the line against the Browns, rushing for 200 yards on 30 carries, four receptions for 29 yards, and scoring a touchdown.  It’s worth noting however that in week 5 he nearly doubled all of his stats from the first four weeks combined: from 35 carries to 65 carries, 5 receptions to 9 receptions, 135 rushing yards to 335 rushing yards, and 21 fantasy points to 47 fantasy points.  The reason we keep statistics is to be able to label outliers.  His performance against the Browns was an outlier.  It was a great week, and he’ll have more good games this year, but they won’t be close to that.  Not when little Manning demands so much attention for being the inferior Manning his whole life.

Another guy with a phenomenal week was Marques Colston – 9 receptions on 18 targets, 131 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Every time Drew Brees sits in a post-game press conference and talks about the level at which he knows his team can play, but they’re just not there yet, I always wondered what he meant.  I think this is what he meant.  Devery Henderson also had a buck-twenty and a score.  But we know the Saints offense.  I would love to see that they have gotten back on track and will be fantasy gold for the rest of the year, however I’m tempering my excitement for now.  Brees is constant, he will get his.  But as for the weapons around him, they’re largely boom or bust.  If I’m a Colston fan, I’m mostly excited about the targets, especially the red zone targets.  But again, my expectations are tempered…

Now You Can Get Excited:
No offense to Curtis Painter, but when you can’t make Reggie Wayne look good, you must be pretty bad.  Due to his awful year last year, Wayne was getting drafted as late as the ninth round in ten team leagues, and it looks like he took it personally.  It’s either that, or his QB is much better now.  I’m gonna go with, it’s a little of both… I personally am a Reggie Wayne owner, and I’m excited, not just because of his 212 yard and TD outburst, but because of the consistency and the chemistry between him and Luck.  I have a feeling he’s going to be in the mix with the top fantasy wide receivers when the season is close to its end.

Last week I talked about draft-day risks, and failed to mention Ryan Mathews.  That was mostly because he didn’t fit what I was talking about.  However, he was as a high on the risk/reward scale as any of those other guys, and I think he’s tipping the scales toward reward pretty quickly.  His health is still going to be a concern, definitely.  But 80 yards on just 12 carries, getting involved in the passing game, and finding the end zone for the first time this season… it’s all heading in the right direction.  This might be the last week you could buy low on Mathews.

If you picked up a win in week 5, congratulations.  Unless the guy who beat me is reading this.  In your case, you just got lucky…